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Quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in changing climate patterns. New perspectives and methods

Explore the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience in a changing world.

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CIVIS focus area
Climate, environment and energy
Open to
  • Master's
  • Phd
Field of studies
  • Environment & Agriculture
  • Natural Sciences and Mathematics
  • Social Science and humanities
  • Environmental sciences, Urbanism, Geography
Type
  • Blended Intensive Programmes (BIP)
Course dates
3 March - 11 April 2025

The course hosted by the University of Bucharest proposes an innovative approach towards vulnerability. It brings together experts from geography (climate change, geomorphology), engineering, psychology, sociology, and anthropology, who will direct their efforts to provide practical learning actions that support the development of competencies and skills for all interested in understanding the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience in a changing world.

Vulnerability is the most important predictive variable in the risk equation, but evaluating the best objective approach to quantify it is challenging. Significant efforts have been made to measure vulnerability for the past thirty years. Still, the field of vulnerability assessments has been dominated by hierarchical rather than inductive approaches.

The programme aims to prepare a new generation of European scientists against an advanced understanding of how global changes (represented by climate, environmental, and socio-economical aspects) relate to complex vulnerability patterns associated with risks in Europe, by:

  1. providing skills and knowledge in the field of hazard, susceptibility, and vulnerability assessments for students from different parts of Europe and Africa; 
  2. exploring the dynamics and outcomes of challenge-based learning approaches in geosciences and geospatial projects; 
  3. identifying and modeling vulnerability-impact relations across different impacts, starting from the impact chain (UNDRR 2022) of multi-hazard situations, in an attempt to bridge the gap between vulnerability analyses that describe only patterns and the ones that produce a quantitative value; 
  4. differentiating between vulnerability-sensitivity and susceptibility of natural and human features to produce bias-(more) free vulnerability assessments; 
  5. identify individual-collective risk perception and predict coping patterns for changing environmental conditions.

The programme consists of both virtual courses and workshops and a 5-day field-learning activity, where students can deepen the knowledge and skills acquired during the virtual component and apply them in a challenge-based learning environment. The program's online component will consist of 5 sessions spread across five weeks, with academics from eight universities (in Romania, Greece, Italy, Sweden, the UK, Switzerland, Uganda, and South Africa) and invited speakers from different research institutes in Romania. It will be strongly connected with the physical component, with a duration of 5 days, that will take place in the Buzau Mountains, Romania, a natural laboratory for an immersive understanding of geohazard dynamics and vulnerability changes.

The physical part will consist of workshops, lectures, seminars, and in situ work, combining innovative ways of learning and teaching, including research-based learning and challenge-based approaches, to tackle major theoretical and practical research challenges. Interactions with tutors with complementary physical and social sciences backgrounds will add value to students' theoretical and methodological knowledge. The proposed training on the complex vulnerability topic will significantly strengthen research in spatial risk assessments, risk perception, and behavior of vulnerable groups before, during, and after hazard strikes.

The program bridges the gap between science and practice by co-creating and co-developing transnational and transdisciplinary curricula and involving stakeholders, local communities, and policymakers in the educational process. Active stakeholders’ participation from the Emergency Department of Romania will highlight bottlenecks in DRR actions at different levels of disaster governance, which will help communities confront the impacts of future environmental changes.

By capitalizing on local knowledge, students will better identify common cognitive biases that complicate understanding probability and shape the link between risk and vulnerability perception and disaster coping behaviors. Research outcomes will increase the wealth of existing knowledge and transdisciplinary evidence to help policymakers and risk managers in their innovation process at all stages of the extended Disaster Risk Management cycle: prevention, reduction, preparedness, response, and recovery. 

Main topics addressed

  • terminological challenges in the risk science;
  • passive and active role of humans in the Anthropocene;
  • what is systemic vulnerability from the risk perspective;
  • drainage evolution in active orogens;
  • sensitivity of costal areas;
  • geomorphometric tools for deciphering tectonic and climatic signals in landscape evolution;
  • geomorphic markers to constrain landscape evolution;
  • landscape evolution and climate change;
  • how to develop impact chains;
  • the mechanisms of vulnerability augmentation in future scenarios;
  • the link between risk perception and behavioral change in the threat of disasters.

Learning outcomes

  • Understanding vulnerability in the context of climate change and multi-hazard dynamic. 
  • Understanding the stable core of vulnerability in a dynamic approach and its importance.
  • Understanding how climate change is affecting the impact chain of cascading multi-hazard events.  
  • Evaluating a vulnerable mountain environment.
  • New competencies in assessing and choosing vulnerability methods and techniques.
  • New competencies in assessing and choosing hazard and susceptibility methods and techniques.
  • Acquiring a well-rounded Disaster Risk Reduction education.
  • Synthesis of local knowledge and modern technologies.
  • Solid science communication skills and engagement with vulnerable communities.
  • Critical evaluation of data sources. 
  • Introduction to disaster-related policymaking.
  • Scenario planning to address uncertainties.
  • Problem-solving ability through the application of local knowledge.
  • Search, analyze, and compose data and information using the necessary technologies.
  • Respect for the complexity of natural and cultural environments.
Dates: 3 March - 11 April 2025 Total workload: 130 hours
Format: Blended ECTS: 5*
Location: Buzău Mts, Romania Language: English (B2)
Contact: iulia_armas@geo.unibuc.ro  

*Recognition of ECTS depends on your home university.

Physical mobility

The physical part is field-based and will be hosted at the Pătârlagele Natural Hazards Research Center (Romanian Academy, Institute of Geography) in the Vrancea seismic region (Curvature Carpathians of Romania), between 7-11 April 2025. We aim to use the Vrancea seismic region's field ‘lab’ to better understand the emerging vulnerabilities in coping with uncertainty from interactions between environmental and human components. 

The training programme will fully exploit trainers' complementary expertise and stimulate knowledge transfer within the network. Secondly, the physical component will complete and apply the theoretical achievements to practical situations in the field, in the environmental context represented by slope instabilities and large earthquakes triggered mass movements of the Buzau Mountains, Romania.

The research and training activities are strongly interwoven into three main parts: theoretical background, training activities in the form of field trips, and laboratory activities/ computer processing.

The list below indicates the main subjects that will be discussed and the main activities in the field and the lab. These are organized as Learning Packages that focus on specific risk components:

Learning Package 1: Hazard

  • presenting various techniques available to investigate the environmental conditions contributing to related natural disasters; learning to acquire and verify input data, develop and validate models; using maps to explore, interact with, and understand geographic environments in the hazard domain; assess uncertainties and designs of impact chains for understanding the systemic nature of risk in multi-hazard evaluation.
  • remote sensing and geophysical surveys performed in the target area to enhance spatial analysis using complex GIS and geostatistical software, focusing on the conditions that contribute to natural hazards.
  • understanding hazard chains (cascading hazards) and cascade development of events (seismic effects, mass movements, avalanching-erosion-deposition, dam formation, breaching impact waves, flash floods-debris flows).
  • quantitative field measurements on the prospection of mass movements (RTK-GNSS, UAV, terrestrial, and airborne laser scans).

Learning Package 2: Vulnerability and Societal Impact

  • remote sensing and geophysical surveys will be performed in the target area to enhance spatial analysis using complex GIS and geostatistical software, targeting the acquisition of datasets necessary for vulnerability assessments.
  • mapping and quantifying vulnerability versus perceived risk and vulnerability.
  • simulating risk mitigation measures for identifying important uncertainties in decision-making and developing local coping strategies.

With this dichotomic structure, the students will be able to choose the package that sparks their interest the most or the one they believe will complete their knowledge and skills.

Virtual part

The virtual component will run between 3-31 March 2025 (5 sessions) and will be preparatory to set the basis for a proper understanding of the physical part by introducing students to the theoretical background of natural hazard dynamics related to climate change and emphasizing the vulnerability of exposed physical systems and human communities.

The teaching curricula will start by setting the scene in climate change, reflected in changing hazard dynamics and focusing on changing vulnerability patterns against the change-related uncertainty conditions surrounding human society. The interaction between experts with different but complementary physical and social sciences backgrounds will help students better understand the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience.

An introductory lesson on risk perception and human behavior before, during, and after disasters will change the approach perspective from human society and help students understand the link between vulnerability, risk perception, and coping behaviors.

The virtual component will include live presentations, challenge-based learning approaches, and asynchronous training tools such as multimedia material and recorded lectures. It will also include a virtual field trip and introduction to the site selected for the physical component to familiarize students with issues trickled into the field. This approach aims to help students during the physical component to be more focused on comprehending new methods and techniques and being acquainted with environmental issues. 

3 March 2025, 16:00 – 18:00 CET

  • Lecture: Anthropocene, Stefan Dorondel and Iuliana Armas (University of Bucharest)

10 March 2025, 16:00 – 18:00 CET

  • Lecture: State of the climate,  Alasdair Skelton (Stockholm University)

17 March 2025, 16:00 – 18:40 CET

  • Lecture: Sea level changes – challenges to coastal areas and adaptation methods, Niki Evelpidou (EKPA), Anna Karkani (EKPA), Giannis Saitis (EKPA)
  • Lecture: Community vulnerability assessments in Scotland, Ria Dunkley (University of Glasgow)

24 March 2025, 16:00 – 18:40 CET

  • Lecture: Deciphering the climatic and tectonic signals in landscape evolution of active orogens, Marta Della Seta (Sapienza Università di Roma)
  • Lecture: Changing geohazards in response to tectonic and climatic forcing, Marc-Henri Derron (Université de Lausanne)

31 March 2025, 16:00 – 18:40 CET

  • Lecture: Dynamics of geohazards and disasters in fragile coupled landscapes under changing climate, Bamutaze Yazidhi (Makerere University, Uganda)
  • Lecture: How to increase the resilience of landscapes and communities to climate change impacts, Jasper Knight (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa)  

Requirements

This course is open to Master's and PhD's students at CIVIS member universities. The course does not require discipline-specific knowledge, although basic geological and geomorphological notions and computer skills (GIS, RS) are desirable.

Also, the participants should have good English skills (B2), theoretical and critical thinking, the ability to turn theory into practice, spatial data analysis, psychometric research, teamwork spirit, and effective interdisciplinary collaboration competencies, skills for work in interdisciplinary environments.
 

NB: Visiting Students - Erasmus Funding Eligibility

To be eligible for your selected CIVIS programme, you must be a fully enrolled student at your CIVIS home university at the time you will be undertaking the programme. Click here to learn more about the eligibility criteria.

This course is also open to students with the same academic profile, who are enrolled at a CIVIS strategic partner university in Africa. Please check here if you can apply and this particular course is open to applications from your university. Successful applicants will receive an Erasmus+ grant covering travel and subsistence costs during their stay. Applicants should be willing to extend their stay at the host university for 1-3 weeks for additional research and/or training purposes. 

Application process

Send your application by filling in the online application form by 31 October 2024, including:

  • CV
  • Motivation letter

Young people engaged in scientific careers, strongly interested in interdisciplinary analysis and cutting-edge technologies, and with diverse cultural backgrounds are welcomed.

Apply now

Assessment

Evaluation of students on the virtual component will be accomplished through online quizzes.

Students will be evaluated on their fieldwork by presenting the outcome of the selected research topic at the end of the physical mobility component.

Blended Intensive Programme

This CIVIS course is a Blended Intensive Programme (BIP): a new format of Erasmus+ mobility which combines online teaching with a short trip to another campus to learn alongside students and professors across Europe. Click here to learn more about CIVIS BIPs.

GDPR Consent

The CIVIS alliance and its member universities will treat the information you provide with respect. Please refer to our privacy policy for more information on our privacy practices. By applying to this course you agree that we may process your information in accordance with these terms.

Iuliana Armas is a Professor of Physical Geography and Natural Hazards in the Department of Geography, Pedology and Geomatics, Faculty of Geography. She is the Head of the Doctoral School of Geography, the Disaster Management Master Program, and the Risk Research Center at the University of Bucharest, Romania. Her research topic is in the field of fluvial geomorphology and susceptibility assessment, vulnerability to natural hazards and risk analysis, and risk perception. Her main areas of research are the Prahova Valley (SE Carpathians), the Lower Danube Valley, and the Bucharest region. Research outputs numbers over 100 publications in international peer-reviewed journals, 12 books, educational textbooks, and book chapters.

Stefan Dorondel is an environmental anthropologist/ environmental historian with a Ph.D. in History and Ethnology from the University of Sibiu (Romania) and a Ph.D. in Rural Studies from the Humboldt University Berlin (Germany). He is interested in wetlands, river history and forests and the people who live in these landscapes from Southeast Europe (mainly Romania and Bulgaria). His last co-edited volume was A New Ecological Order. Development and the Transformation of Nature in Eastern Europe, The University of Pittsburgh Press (2022).

Mihai Micu is a Physical Geographer, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Bucharest. He is the Vice-President of the International Association of Geomorphologists. His main topics of research are focused on the morphodynamic analysis of slope processes, with a special focus on landslides for local and regional scale susceptibility assessment, frequency-magnitude correlations, hazard evaluation, risk analysis, assessment and management, earthquake-induced landslides. His main area of research is the Vrancea Seismic Region (SE Carpathians), an area recognized as a European multi-hazard hotspot. He has published more than 60 papers (articles, book chapters) in international peer-reviewed journals and books.

Dr. Dragoș Toma-Dănilă is a researcher at the National Institute for Earth Physics and at the Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Romania. His main activities are related to seismic hazard and risk analysis, GIS, drone mapping and educational outreach. He is the administrator of the System for Rapid Estimation of Seismic Damage in Romania and was involved in multiple projects such as MULTICARE, PARATUS, TURNKEY, SERA, PREQUAKE or RO-RISK. His PhD thesis was related to the seismic risk of transportation networks. He contributed to the development of the Earthquake Mobile Exhibition (MOBEE) and the “Bucharest and Earthquakes” guided tour.

Dr. Cosmina Albulescu is an Early Career Scientist, working as a Researcher at the Center for Risk Studies, University of Bucharest, and as Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Geography and Geology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi. Her research interests focus on vulnerability to natural hazards (earthquake, flood, drought vulnerability), multi-hazard risks, risk assessment, risk perception, and secondarily on forest cover dynamics and the associated forestry policy drivers. The research work she conducted centres on the eastern and south-eastern regions of Romania, and on the Vrancea Seismic Region. Her scientific output includes more than 18 papers in international peer-reviewed journals.

Jasper Knight is Professor of Physical Geography at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. His work deals with geomorphic and environmental impacts of Quaternary and Holocene climate change, in particular on the sediment systems of mountains, rivers and coasts, and mainly in glaciated and semiarid environments. He is also concerned with the responses of these sediment systems to ongoing change in the Anthropocene, including paraglaciation, geohazards, and provision of environmental services.

Alasdair Skelton is Professor of Geochemistry and Petrology at the Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University. He is also affiliated to the Department of Environmental Science. His published works are on geology, earthquakes, volcanism, tsunamis, climate of the past and the ongoing climate crisis. He is Chairperson for the European Civic University Hub on Climate, Environment and Energy. He has educated tens of thousands of students at all levels from kindergarten to university, as well as a wide range of public audiences, about geology and climate. He is co-founder of Researcher’s Desk.

Marta Della Seta is Associate Professor in Physical Geography and Geomorphology at Sapienza Università di Roma. The evolution of drainage networks and slope landforms in response to tectonics, climate, and volcanism is her primary research topic. In particular, she is interested in the medium-to-long term landscape evolution modelling from geomorphic markers, for the estimation of tectonic deformation rates and slope stability. Her studies involve the Mediterranean region (Italy, Southeastern Spain) and Central Iran. She has been member of the Executive Committee of the International Association of Geomorphologists and is currently member of the Executive Committee of the Italian Geological Society.

Dr. Marc-Henri Derron is senior lecturer in the group RISK of the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, since 2009. The focus on my work in on hazard and risk analysis related to slope processes, utilizing remote sensing technologies, lab experiments and field investigations. Prior to this, he worked as a Geologist Researcher at the Geological Survey of Norway, mostly on developing innovative techniques for geohazards mapping and monitoring. He participates in projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe, which integrate cutting-edge techniques (such as insar or lidar) with fieldwork and addressing the needs of local populations.

Yazidhi Bamutaze is a Professor of Geography in the Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University and the Deputy Principal of the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Makerere University. His research is currently concentrated on geohazards and environmental risk and associated human dimension particularly in fragile environments under changing conditions. He's had a line of concentration especially on landslides, flood and soil erosion in strongly coupled highland landscapes addressing both the physical and human aspects.

Niki Evelpidou is a Professor at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, since 2022 she is nominated elected member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts. Her research focuses on geomorphology, coastal geomorphology, sea level changes, paleogeography, the study and modeling on natural hazards and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Her research numbers more than 340 publications in scientific conferences and journals, 35 books, while she has given many lectures in Greece and abroad. She is actively involved in academic, research and educational activities, as she has organized more than 35 educational seminars and training schools while she has participated in the organization of 45 international workshops and conferences. Prof. Evelpidou has received several awards and recognitions, with the most prominent those from the Academy of Athens.

Dr. Anna Karkani is a Laboratory Teaching Staff member at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens. Her research interests are mainly focused on geomorphology, coastal geomorphology, natural hazards, palaeogeography and sea level changes. Her research numbers 43 publications in scientific journals, 37 conference announcements, as well as 10 books and educational textbooks. She is also actively involved in the organization of conferences, workshops and training schools related to geomorphological subjects.

Dr. Giannis Saitis is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of NKUA. His fields of interest are interdisciplinary and involves applied environmental geomorphology (natural disasters risk assessment studies, geochemical and mineralogical analyzes of rocks, research in coastal areas, etc.), evolution of the coastal zone and effects of climate change and natural hazards (change sea level, tsunami, coastal erosion), palaeogeographic reconstruction, geoarchaeological survey and geological mapping and analysis in a GIS environment. Dr. Giannis Saitis holds 21 publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals, 23 participations in international and national conferences. 

Dr Ria Dunkley is a Senior Lecturer in Geography, Environment and Sustainability at the University of Glasgow. She specialises in eco-pedagogy as a route to enabling an understanding of the climate crisis. She is currently leading the Community Collaboration work within GALLANT, based within the Centre for Sustainable Solutions and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). She is co-chair of the European CIVIS hub for Climate, Energy and Environment and Associate Director of the Centre for Sustainable Solutions.

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