Quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in changing climate patterns. New perspectives and methods
Explore the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience in a changing world!
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- Climate, environment and energy
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- Master's
- Phd
- PhD candidates/students
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- Environment & Agriculture
- Natural Sciences and Mathematics
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- Environmental sciences, Urbanism, Geography
- Tipo
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- Blended Intensive Programmes (BIP)
- Course dates
- 16 March 2026 - 27 April 2026
- Apply by
- 30 octubre 2025 Apply now
The programme hosted by the University of Bucharest proposes an innovative approach towards vulnerability. It brings together experts from geography (climate change, geomorphology), engineering, psychology, sociology, and anthropology, who will direct their efforts to provide practical learning actions that support the development of competencies and skills for all interested in understanding the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience in a changing world.
Vulnerability is the most important predictive variable in the risk equation, but it is challenging to evaluate the best objective approach to quantify it. Significant efforts have been made to measure vulnerability for the past thirty years. Still, the field of vulnerability assessments has been dominated by hierarchical rather than inductive approaches.
video credits: Iuliana Armas, Robert Cilinca
The programme aims to prepare a new generation of scientists against an advanced understanding of how global changes of the Anthropocene (related to climate, environmental, and socio-economical aspects) are concatenate within complex vulnerability patterns generating risks. High-level training facilities and scientific and technological excellence will empower the next generation of researchers to understand how these vulnerability changes can be assessed, modelled, and incorporated into sustainable risk management and disaster coping strategies by:
(1) providing skills and knowledge in the field of hazard, susceptibility, and vulnerability assessments for students from different parts of Europe and Africa;
(2) exploring the dynamics and outcomes of challenge-based learning approaches in geosciences and geospatial projects;
(3) identifying and modelling vulnerability-impact relations across different impacts, starting from the impact chain (UNDRR 2022) of multi-hazard situations, in an attempt to bridge the gap between vulnerability analyses that describe only patterns and the ones that produce a quantitative value;
(4) differentiating between vulnerability-sensitivity and susceptibility of natural and human features to produce bias-(more) free vulnerability assessments;
The program consists of both virtual courses and workshops and a 5-day field-learning activity, where students can deepen the knowledge and skills acquired during the virtual component and apply them in a challenge-based learning environment. The program's online component will consist of 5 sessions spread across five weeks, with academics from eight universities (in Romania, Greece, Italy, Sweden, the UK, Switzerland, Uganda and South Africa) and invited speakers from different research institutes of Romania and Mexico.
It will be strongly connected with the physical component, with a duration of 5 days, that will take place in the Buzau Mountains, Romania, a natural laboratory for an immersive understanding of geohazard dynamics and vulnerability changes. The proposed training on complex vulnerability will significantly strengthen research in spatial risk assessments. Ultimately, this vulnerability-related training will bolster the coping strategies of natural and human systems in a changing environment with the risk of increasingly severe and frequent natural and man-made disasters.
Main topics addressed
- Terminological challenges in the risk science and the concept of vulnerability;
- Passive and active role of humans in the Anthropocene;
- What is systemic vulnerability from the risk perspective;
- Climate change;
- Drainage evolution in active orogens;
- Sensitivity of coastal areas;
- Geomorphometric tools for deciphering tectonic and climatic signals in landscape evolution;
- Geomorphic markers to constrain landscape evolution;
- Landscape evolution and climate change;
- How to develop impact chains;
- Enhanced impact chains on vulnerability and the systemic vulnerability model.
Learning Outcomes
- Understanding vulnerability in the context of climate change and multi-hazard dynamic.
- Understanding the stable core of vulnerability in a dynamic approach and its importance.
- Understanding how climate change is affecting the impact chain of cascading multi-hazard events.
- Evaluating a vulnerable mountain environment.
- New competencies in assessing vulnerability methods and techniques.
- New competencies in assessing hazard and susceptibility methods and techniques.
- Acquiring a well-rounded Disaster Risk Reduction education.
- Synthesis of local knowledge and modern technologies.
- Solid science communication skills and engagement with vulnerable communities.
- Critical evaluation of data sources.
- Introduction to disaster-related policymaking.
- Scenario planning to address uncertainties.
- Problem-solving ability through the application of local knowledge.
- Search, analyze, and compose data and information using the necessary technologies.
- Respect for the complexity of natural and cultural environments.
| Dates: 16 March 2026 - 27 April 2026 | Total workload: 130 hours |
| Format: Blended | ECTS: 5* |
| Location: Buzau Mts., Romania | Language: English (B2) |
| Contact: iulia_armas@geo.unibuc.ro |
*recognition of ECTS depends on your home university
Physical mobility
The physical part is field-based and will be hosted at the Pătârlagele Natural Hazards Research Center (Romanian Academy, Institute of Geography) in the Vrancea seismic region (Curvature Carpathians of Romania) between 20 and 24 April 2026. We aim to use the Vrancea seismic region's field ‘lab’ to understand better the emerging vulnerabilities in coping with uncertainty from interactions between environmental and human components.
The training programme will fully exploit trainers' complementary expertise and stimulate knowledge transfer within the network. Secondly, the physical component will complete and apply the theoretical achievements to practical situations in the field, in the environmental context represented by slope instabilities and large earthquakes triggered mass movements of the Buzau Mountains, Romania.
The research and training activities are strongly interwoven into three main parts: theoretical background, training activities in the form of field trips, and laboratory activities/ computer processing.
The list below indicates the main issues and activities scheduled in the field and the lab. These are organized as Learning Packages that focus on specific risk components:
Learning Package 1: Hazard
- presenting various techniques available to investigate the environmental conditions contributing to related natural disasters; learning to acquire and verify input data, develop and validate models; using maps to explore, interact with, and understand geographic environments in the hazard domain; assess uncertainties and designs of impact chains for understanding the systemic nature of risk in multi-hazard evaluation.
- remote sensing and geophysical surveys will be performed in the target area to enhance spatial analysis using complex GIS and geostatistical software, focusing on the conditions that contribute to natural hazards.
- understanding hazard chains (cascading hazards) and cascade development of events (seismic effects, mass movements, avalanching-erosion-deposition, dam formation, breaching impact waves, flash floods-debris flows).
- quantitative field measurements on the prospection of mass movements (RTK-GNSS, UAV, terrestrial, and airborne laser scans).
Learning Package 2: Vulnerability and Societal Impact
- acquisition of datasets necessary for vulnerability assessments.
- untangling disasters through Impact Chains.
- understanding vulnerability dynamics based on an Enhanced Impact Chain-based approach
- simulating risk mitigation measures for identifying significant uncertainties in decision-making and developing local coping strategies.
With this dichotomic structure, the students will be able to choose the package that sparks their interest the most or the one they believe will complete their knowledge and skills.
Virtual part
The virtual component will run between 16-30 March 2026 (three sessions) and April 13 and 27 (two sessions). The first four sessions will be preparatory, setting the basis for a proper understanding of the physical part by introducing students to the theoretical background of natural hazard dynamics related to climate change and emphasizing the vulnerability of exposed human communities. The last theoretical session will build on trained skills and acquired knowledge during the physical part.
The teaching curricula will start by setting the scene in understanding the human pressure in the Anthropocene and climate change reflected in changing hazard dynamics. The main topic will focus on changing vulnerability patterns against the change-related uncertainty conditions surrounding human society. The interaction between experts with different but complementary physical and social sciences backgrounds will help students better understand the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience.
The virtual component will include live presentations, challenge-based learning approaches, and asynchronous training tools such as multimedia material and recorded lectures. It will also include a virtual field trip and introduction to the site selected for the physical component to familiarize students with issues trickled into the field. This approach aims to help students become more focused on comprehending new methods and techniques and being acquainted with environmental issues during the physical component so that they can better assimilate theoretical concepts.
16 March 2026, 16:00 – 18:00 CET
- Lecture: Vulnerability in the Age of the Anthropocene, Stefan Dorondel and Iuliana Armas (University of Bucharest)
23 March 2026, 16:00 – 18:00 CET
- Lecture: State of the climate, Alasdair Skelton (Stockholm University)
30 March 2026, 16:00 – 18:00 CET
- Lecture: Sea level changes – challenges to coastal areas and adaptation methods, Niki Evelpidou (EKPA), Anna Karkani (EKPA), Giannis Saitis (EKPA)
- Lecture: Community vulnerability assessments to sea level changes in Scotland, Ria Dunkley (University of Glasgow)
13 April 2026, 16:00 – 18:00 CET
- Lecture: Deciphering the climatic and tectonic signals in landscape evolution of active orogens, Marta Della Seta (Sapienza Università di Roma)
- Lecture: Changing geohazards in response to tectonic and climatic forcing, Marc-Henri Derron (Université de Lausanne)
27 April 2026, 16:00 – 18:00 CET
- Lecture: Dynamics of geohazards and disasters in fragile coupled landscapes under changing climate, Bamutaze Yazidhi (Makerere University, Uganda)
- Lecture: How to increase the resilience of landscapes and communities to climate change impacts, Jasper Knight (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa)
Assessment
- Evaluation of students on the virtual component will be accomplished through online quizzes.
- Students will be evaluated on their fieldwork by presenting the outcome of the selected research topic at the end of the physical mobility component.
The programme is open to Master's and PhD students enrolled at CIVIS member universities.
The course does not require discipline-specific knowledge, although basic geological and geomorphological notions and computer skills (GIS, RS) are desirable.
Also, the participants should have good English skills (B2), theoretical and critical thinking, the ability to turn theory into practice, spatial data analysis, teamwork spirit, practical interdisciplinary collaboration competencies, and skills for working in multidisciplinary environments.
The participants' profiles should include young people engaged in scientific careers, strongly interested in interdisciplinary analysis and cutting-edge technologies. The course addresses postgraduate students from the social and natural sciences with a strong background in methodological research.
Good written and spoken English skills (B2) are mandatory.
NB: Visiting Students - Erasmus Funding Eligibility
To be eligible for your selected CIVIS programme, you must be a fully enrolled student at your CIVIS home university at the time you will be undertaking the programme.
This course is also open to students with the same academic profile, who are enrolled at a CIVIS strategic partner university in Africa. Please check here, if you can apply and this particular course is open to applications from your university. Successful applicants will receive an Erasmus+ grant covering travel and subsistence costs during their stay. Applicants should be willing to extend their stay at the host university for 1-3 weeks for additional research and/or training purposes.
Partner universities:
- Sapienza Università di Roma (Italia)
- University of Glasgow (UK)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (Greece)
- Stockholm University (Sweden)
- University of Lausanne (Switzerland)
- University of the Witwatersrand (South Africa)
- Makerere University (Uganda)
Professors:
Iuliana Armas is a Professor of Physical Geography and Natural Hazards in the Department of Geography, Pedology and Geomatics, Faculty of Geography at the University of Bucharest. She is the Head of the Doctoral School of Geography, the Disaster Management Master Program and the Risk Research Center at the University of Bucharest, Romania. Her research topic is in the field of fluvial geomorphology and landslides susceptibility assessment, vulnerability to natural hazards and risk analysis, risk perception and disaster preparedness behavior. Her main research areas are the Prahova Valley (SE Carpathians), the Lower Danube Valley and the Bucharest region. Research outputs over 100 publications in international peer-reviewed journals, 12 books, several educational textbooks and book chapters.
Stefan Dorondel is an environmental anthropologist/ environmental historian with a Ph.D. in History and Ethnology from the University of Sibiu (Romania) and a Ph.D. in Rural Studies from the Humboldt University Berlin (Germany). He is interested in wetlands, river history and forests and the people who live in these landscapes from Southeast Europe (mainly Romania and Bulgaria). His last co-edited volume was A New Ecological Order. Development and the Transformation of Nature in Eastern Europe, The University of Pittsburgh Press (2022).
Mihai Micu is a Physical Geographer, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Bucharest. He is the Vice-President of the International Association of Geomorphologists. His main topics of research are focused on the morphodynamic analysis of slope processes, with a special focus on landslides for local and regional scale susceptibility assessment, frequency-magnitude correlations, hazard evaluation, risk analysis, assessment and management, earthquake-induced landslides. His main area of research is the Vrancea Seismic Region (SE Carpathians), an area recognized as a European multi-hazard hotspot. He has published more than 60 papers (articles, book chapters) in international peer-reviewed journals and books.
Dr. Dragoș Toma-Dănilă is a researcher at the National Institute for Earth Physics and at the Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Romania. His main activities are related to seismic hazard and risk analysis, GIS, drone mapping and educational outreach. He is the administrator of the System for Rapid Estimation of Seismic Damage in Romania and was involved in multiple projects such as MULTICARE, PARATUS, TURNKEY, SERA, PREQUAKE or RO-RISK. His PhD thesis was related to the seismic risk of transportation networks. He contributed to the development of the Earthquake Mobile Exhibition (MOBEE) and the “Bucharest and Earthquakes” guided tour.
Dr. Cosmina Albulescu is an Early Career Scientist, working as a Researcher at the Center for Risk Studies, University of Bucharest, and as Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Geography and Geology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi. Her research interests focus on vulnerability to natural hazards (earthquake, flood, drought vulnerability), multi-hazard risks, risk assessment, risk perception, and secondarily on forest cover dynamics and the associated forestry policy drivers. The research work she conducted centres on the eastern and south-eastern regions of Romania, and on the Vrancea Seismic Region. Her scientific output includes more than 18 papers in international peer-reviewed journals.
Jasper Knight is Professor of Physical Geography at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. His work deals with geomorphic and environmental impacts of Quaternary and Holocene climate change, in particular on the sediment systems of mountains, rivers and coasts, and mainly in glaciated and semiarid environments. He is also concerned with the responses of these sediment systems to ongoing change in the Anthropocene, including paraglaciation, geohazards, and provision of environmental services.
Alasdair Skelton is Professor of Geochemistry and Petrology at the Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University. He is also affiliated to the Department of Environmental Science. His published works are on geology, earthquakes, volcanism, tsunamis, climate of the past and the ongoing climate crisis. He is Chairperson for the European Civic University Hub on Climate, Environment and Energy. He has educated tens of thousands of students at all levels from kindergarten to university, as well as a wide range of public audiences, about geology and climate. He is co-founder of Researcher’s Desk.
Marta Della Seta is Associate Professor in Physical Geography and Geomorphology at Sapienza Università di Roma. The evolution of drainage networks and slope landforms in response to tectonics, climate, and volcanism is her primary research topic. In particular, she is interested in the medium-to-long term landscape evolution modelling from geomorphic markers, for the estimation of tectonic deformation rates and slope stability. Her studies involve the Mediterranean region (Italy, Southeastern Spain) and Central Iran. She has been member of the Executive Committee of the International Association of Geomorphologists and is currently member of the Executive Committee of the Italian Geological Society.
Dr. Marc-Henri Derron is senior lecturer in the group RISK of the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, since 2009. The focus on my work in on hazard and risk analysis related to slope processes, utilizing remote sensing technologies, lab experiments and field investigations. Prior to this, he worked as a Geologist Researcher at the Geological Survey of Norway, mostly on developing innovative techniques for geohazards mapping and monitoring. He participates in projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe, which integrate cutting-edge techniques (such as insar or lidar) with fieldwork and addressing the needs of local populations.
Yazidhi Bamutaze is a Professor of Geography in the Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University and the Deputy Principal of the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Makerere University. His research is currently concentrated on geohazards and environmental risk and associated human dimension particularly in fragile environments under changing conditions. He's had a line of concentration especially on landslides, flood and soil erosion in strongly coupled highland landscapes addressing both the physical and human aspects.
Niki Evelpidou is a Professor at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, since 2022 she is nominated elected member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts. Her research focuses on geomorphology, coastal geomorphology, sea level changes, paleogeography, the study and modeling on natural hazards and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Her research numbers more than 340 publications in scientific conferences and journals, 35 books, while she has given many lectures in Greece and abroad. She is actively involved in academic, research and educational activities, as she has organized more than 35 educational seminars and training schools while she has participated in the organization of 45 international workshops and conferences. Prof. Evelpidou has received several awards and recognitions, with the most prominent those from the Academy of Athens.
Dr. Anna Karkani is a Laboratory Teaching Staff member at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens. Her research interests are mainly focused on geomorphology, coastal geomorphology, natural hazards, palaeogeography and sea level changes. Her research numbers 43 publications in scientific journals, 37 conference announcements, as well as 10 books and educational textbooks. She is also actively involved in the organization of conferences, workshops and training schools related to geomorphological subjects.
Dr. Giannis Saitis is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of National & Kapodistrian University of Athens . His fields of interest are interdisciplinary and involves applied environmental geomorphology (natural disasters risk assessment studies, geochemical and mineralogical analyzes of rocks, research in coastal areas, etc.), evolution of the coastal zone and effects of climate change and natural hazards (change sea level, tsunami, coastal erosion), palaeogeographic reconstruction, geoarchaeological survey and geological mapping and analysis in a GIS environment. Dr. Giannis Saitis holds 21 publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals, 23 participations in international and national conferences.
Dr Ria Dunkley is a Senior Lecturer in Geography, Environment and Sustainability at the University of Glasgow. She specialises in eco-pedagogy as a route to enabling an understanding of the climate crisis. She is currently leading the Community Collaboration work within GALLANT, based within the Centre for Sustainable Solutions and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). She is co-chair of the European CIVIS hub for Climate, Energy and Environment and Associate Director of the Centre for Sustainable Solutions.
Send your application by filling in the online application form by 30 October 2025, including:
- CV
- Motivation letter
- Level of English
Students will be evaluated based on:
- Motivation
- Scientific rigour
- Critical thinking
- Knowledge application
- Concision and Clarity
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