Policy brief no. 17 | September 2026
By Margaret Monyani
Southern Africa is increasingly shaped by a polycrisis in which climate stress, economic insecurity, food-system fragility, urban pressure, and cross-border mobility interact rather than unfold in isolation. Recent evidence shows worsening drought and food insecurity, rising disaster displacement, and mounting pressure on human settlements and public services. The 2023/24 El Niño shock pushed multiple countries into national emergencies and contributed to a major regional food-security crisis, while longer-term warming, rainfall variability, and compound extremes continue to erode livelihoods across rural and urban areas alike. In this context, migration and displacement should not be treated as residual humanitarian outcomes; they are central indicators of whether governance systems can anticipate risk, protect people, and maintain legitimacy.
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